How To Calculate Soccer Betting Odds

Posted on by admin
17/07/2017 21:53

Bettors will see odds at any soccer betting site that are laid out like this: This is your standard moneyline bet in which all you need to do is pick one team to win or for the match to end in a draw. The minus sign (-) in a moneyline bet represents the favorite. Decimal Style Sports Betting Odds Decimal style odds are used mostly in Europe, and are pretty easy to understand. To calculate the decimal style odds all you will need to do is simply multiply the amount you wish to wager by the decimal odds shown and you will get your payout. For example it may look something like this.

Long-term profits are very closely related to the margin applied on the soccer betting odds. The lower the margins are, the more they are in favour of the bettor and the larger they are, it gives bigger profit. Below is an explanation on how to calculate margins on 1X2 odds.

The soccer betting odds’ margin is actually the price that a bookmaker is charging and the Margin Calculator below gives an idea of how this works and makes it easier for bettors to calculate the margin on a bet.

Normally, we will take a match with three possibilities of ending as we need an example of 1X2. For that purpose, we will take the match between Hull City and Leicester City. This match was played at the KCOM Stadium. The opening price for Hull City was 3.41 and for Leicester City it was 2.39. The draw was set to 3.19

Outcome Odds

Hull City to win 3.41

Leicester City to win 2.39

Draw 3.19

There are two steps to calculate the margins for 1X2 odds:

  1. The odds for all three possible outcomes shall be converted into decimal probability;
  2. Solve the equation:

Margin = (1/Home Odds) + (1/Away Odds) + (1/Draw Odds) – 1

First, we shall convert each 1X2 market into a decimal chance of winning. This is what actually is inside each set of the brackets in the equation above: (1/Odds).

For Hull City, which is the home team, the decimal probability is (1/3.41) = 0.293 (this is actually a 29.3 % chance of winning). On the other hand, the draw shall be (1/3.19) which equals 0.313 and Leicester is (1/2.39) which equals 0.418.

And second, we will substitute the numbers above as is shown in the formula in order to calculate the margin.

Margin = (0.293) + (0.418) + (0.313) – 1. Thus, the margin is 0.024 or 2.4 %.


Odds

How To Calculate Soccer Betting Odds Today

Various types of bookmaker’s margins

The odds above are just an example of how one bookmaker offers odds. There are other bookmakers who will offer slightly different odds, and normally the profit may differ drastically. For example, what another bookmaker could offer for the same match is 3.10 for Hull City, 2.10 for Leicester and 2.90 for draw. The margin in this example turns out to be 10 % which is huge and more than five times more expensive than in the previous example. Thus, if a bettor placed $100 bet on Hull City to win on the 1X2 market, he would have won $31 more if playing with the bookmaker whose margin was 2.4 %.

The crucial thing in soccer betting is learning how to make more sophisticated decisions. Thus bettors should first educate themselves and then place bets. This includes checking other margins before making the final choice and placing the final bet. They should always look for bookmakers with risk management model which are in a position to offer better value than the rest.

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The margin a bookmaker applies on the betting odds is the number one information a bettor should know in order to increase long-term profits, with lower margins favoring the bettor and larger margins eating into betting profits. Here’s a simple guide on how to calculate margins on 1X2 odds.

While novice bettors tend to compare odds, smart bettors know that the real price a bookmaker is charging is the betting odds’ margins - our Margin Calculator offers a simple way to calculate the margin applied to a bet.

Let’s take an example of a soccer game with three possible outcomes (home team to win, away team to win, draw). For the first week of the Premier League 2016/17 season, Pinnacle offered an opening price of 3.41 for Hull City to win at the KCOM Stadium against Leicester City, who were priced at 2.39, with the draw set at 3.19.

How To Calculate Soccer Betting Odds Per

Outcome

Odds

Hull City to win

3.41

Leicester City to win

2.39

Draw

3.19

Calculating 1X2 odds’ margin in two simple steps

Soccer Betting Odds Explained

1.Convert the odds for all three possible outcomes into decimal probability

2. Solve for the equation:

Margin = (1/Home Odds) + (1/Away Odds) + (1/Draw Odds) – 1

Step One: The first step in calculating margins on 1X2 odds is to convert each 1X2 market into a decimal chance of winning. That’s the equation inside each set of brackets above: (1/Odds).

For the home team, in this case Hull City, the decimal probability is (1/3.41) = 0.293 (which symbolises a 29.3% chance of winning), while the draw is (1/3.19) = 0.313 and Leicester is (1/2.39) = 0.418.

Outcome

Odds

Decimal probability

Hull City to win

3.41

0.293

Leicester City to win

2.39

0.418

Draw

3.19

0.313


Step Two: Now simply substitute the numbers above into the rest of the formula to calculate the margin.

Calculate

Margin = (0.293) + (0.418) + (0.313) – 1. Therefore the margin is 0.024 – or 2.4%.

Comparing bookmaker’s margin

The same game sees another popular bookmaker offer odds for Hull City at 3.10, Leicester at 2.10 and a draw 2.90. This works out to a huge margin of 12%, which is more than five times more expensive than Pinnacle.

In practical terms, this means that if you had placed a $100 bet on Hull City to win on the 1X2 market you would have won $31 more playing with Pinnacle than by placing the same bet with another major online bookmaker.

At Pinnacle, we don't just believe that it is important to offer the best odds; we are also on a mission to educate bettors on how to make more sophisticated decisions. But don't take our word for it. We encourage you to check our margins and compare us to other bookmakers, before deciding what is the best sports betting deal online.

Due to our unique risk management model, we are able to offer better value than other bookmakers. This is why Pinnacle is the number one choice for sharp bettors.